Now that the media spotlight is gone, and a couple of months have passed, what does the Copenhagen Accord really mean for the past, present and future of climate change?

January 31, 2010 was the deadline for participating countries to submit their proposals to the UNFCCC to reduce greenhouse gas emissions reductions. How did they fare?

Currently, with no changes, the forecast for average global temperature increase by 2100 is 4.7 degrees Celsius.  Scientific consensus is that this would be catastrophic, with sea levels rising by one metre.

The Copenhagen Accord was a promise (non-binding, remember) that the participating countries would reduce emissions so that we have a minimum average global temperature increase of only 2.5 degrees by 2100.

When you look at these projections, it is worth noting that many African countries, who are particularly sensitive to the drought and desertification brought about by higher temperatures, walked out on the Copenhagen summit at one point because their position is that average temperature rise by 2100 of more than 1.5 degrees will be catastrophic for them.

So how are the proposals that were just submitted on January 31? According to Climate Interactive, a collaborative project to use open-source tools to accurately predict the future of climate change, the proposals that have just been submitted don’t even take us to where we’re supposed to be ~ that is, reducing emissions such that the temperature only increases by 2.5% by 2100.

Instead, the scientists and data-modeling folks at Climate Interactive say that the current proposals will only bring down the temperature increase to 3.9% by 2100. In other words, almost exactly 4 degrees.

If we take that as a given, and we assume that all the participating countries will do what they say they are going to do (which is a big IF) then what will the world look like, 4 degrees warmer?

A four-degree C overall increase means a world where temperatures will be two degrees warmer in some places, 12 degrees and more in others, making those uninhabitable.

It will likely mean one to two billion people will not have access to adequate fresh water because of the major shift in rainfall patterns.

It is a world with a one- to two-metre sea level rise by 2100, leaving hundreds of millions homeless. This will head to 12 metres in the coming centuries as the Greenland and Western Antarctic ice sheets melt, according to papers presented at a conference in Oxford in October.

Even with a two-degree rise, most of the world’s coral reefs will be lost, large portions of the ocean will become dead zones, mountain glaciers will largely vanish and many other ecosystems will be at risk.

The 16th conference of the parties (COP16) to the UN Framework on Climate Change will meet in Mexico next year. Let’s hope that as a global family, we can see fit to finding real, binding agreements that have more effective results than the four degree solution that just isn’t any solution at all.

Tags: Climate Change, Climate Interactive, Copenhagen Accord

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